INVESTIGATION ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ROMANIAN FOREIGN TRADE AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
INVESTIGATION ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ROMANIAN FOREIGN TRADE AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Keywords:
Industrial Production, Exports, Imports, Granger Causality
Abstract
This paper investigates the interactions among the Romanian industrial
production, exports and imports after the adhesion to European Union. We employ
monthly values testing for the Granger Causality between the variables in a Vector
Autoregression framework. Our results indicate significant causalities among the variables,
especially the one from the returns of exports to the returns of the industrial production
index. We could consider these findings as an argument in favor of the Exports-Led
Growth Hypothesis.
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Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling, Journal of Development
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Journal of Economics, 106 (2), pp. 407-443.
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Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
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the Polish economy, Published in: Operations Research and Decisions, Vol. 20, (2010):
pp. 5-29, Available at: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52286
37. Hannan, E. J. and Quinn, B. G. (1979), The determination of the order of an
autoregression, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B41: pp. 190-195.
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The Canadian case, Canadian Journal of Economics, pp. 540-555.
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Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
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Chile cointegrated?, Discussion papers // Ibero America Institute for Economic Research,
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http://faculty.washington.edu/karyiu/confer/seoul06/papers/kim_sh.pdf
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Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
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the Polish economy, Published in: Operations Research and Decisions, Vol. 20, (2010):
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autoregression, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B41: pp. 190-195.
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The Canadian case, Canadian Journal of Economics, pp. 540-555.
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Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
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economic growth: the case of the Asian NIC’s, Journal of Economic Development 12(2),
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empirical evidence from Africa, Economics Letters, 37, pp. 243–248.
3. Akaike, H. (1969), Fitting autoregressive models for prediction, Annals of the Institute of
Statistical Mathematics 21, pp. 243-247.
4. Akaike, H. (1973), Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood
principle, in B. Petrov and F. Csáki (eds), 2nd International Symposium on Information
Theory, Académiai Kiadó, Budapest, pp. 267-281.
5. Akaike, H. (1974), A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE Transactions
on Automatic Control AC-19, pp. 716-723.
6. Arize, A. C. (2002), Imports and exports in 50 countries tests of cointegration structural
breaks, International Review of Economics and Finance, 11, pp. 101-115.
7. Awokuse, T. O. (2007), Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth:
Evidence from transition economies, Economics Letters, 94(3), pp. 389-395, Available at:
http://econ3.upm.edu.my/kelasmaya/sumberkursus/a02434/ECN4124
8. Azgun, S. and H. Servinc (2010), Are imports a reason of growth?: evidence from
Turkey, The Social Sciences, 5(2), pp. 66-69.
9. Bahmani - Oskoee, M. (2009), Export Led Growth vs. Growth Led Exports: LDCs
Experience, Journal of Development Areas, Vol. 32, pp.87-98.
10. Bahmani - Oskoee, M. and Alse J. (1993), Export Growth and Economic Growth: An
Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modelling, Journal of Development
Areas, Vol. 27, pp.535-542.
11. Bahmani - Oskoee, M. and Mohtadi H. and Shabsigh G. (1991), Exports, Growth and
Causality in LDCs: A Re-examination, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 36,
pp.405-415.
12. Balassa, B. (1978), Exports and economic growth: further evidence, Journal of
Development Economics, 5, pp. 181-1899.
13. Balassa, B. (1985), Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing
countries after the 1973 oil shock, Journal of Development Economics, 18, pp. 23-35.
14. Barro, R.J. (1991), Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries, Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 106 (2), pp. 407-443.
15. Bender, Siegfried and Li, Kui - Wai, (March 2002), The Changing Trade and Revealed
Comparative Advantages of Asian and Latin American Manufacture Exports, Yale
Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper No. 843, Available at SSRN:
http://ssrn.com/abstract=303259
16. Bernard, A. B., & Bradford Jensen, J. (1999), Exceptional exporter performance:
cause, effect, or both?, Journal of International Economics, 47(1), 1-25, Available at:
http://www.nber.org/papers/w6272
17. Bhagwati J.N. (1988), Protectionism, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
18. Boermans, M. A. (2012), International Entrepreneurship and Enterprise Development,
Tjalling C. Koopmans Institute Discussion Paper Series.
19. Buffie, E. F. (1992), On the condition for export-led growth, Canadian Journal of
Economics, pp. 211-225.
20. Chen, H. (2009), A literature review on the relationship between foreign trade and
economic growth, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 1(1), pp. 127-130.
21. Chow, P.C. (1987), Causality between exports growth and industrial development,
Journal of Development Economics, 26, pp. 55-63.
22. Clerides, S. K., and Lach, S., and Tybout, J. R. (1998), Is learning by exporting
important? Micro-dynamic evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco, Quarterly
Journal of Economics, pp. 903-947.
23. Coe, T.D. and Helpman, E. (1995), International R&D spillovers, European Economic
Review, 39, pp. 859-887.
24. Damijan, Joze P. and Kostevc, Črt. (August 2010), Learning from Trade Through
Innovation: Causal Link Between Imports, Exports and Innovation in Spanish Microdata,
LICOS Discussion Paper No. 264/2010, Available at SSRN:
http://ssrn.com/abstract=1658389
25. De Loeckera, J. (2013), Detecting learning by exporting, American Economic Journal:
Microeconomics, 5(3), 1-21, Available at: http://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmic/v5y2013i3p1-
21.html
26. Dickey, D. A.; Fuller, W. A. (1979), Estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit
root, Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, pp. 427-431
27. Dumitriu, Ramona and Stefanescu, Razvan (2013), Romanian Current Account
Sustainability after the Adhesion to European Union, Proceedings of the 19th International
Conference “The Knowledge-Based Organization”, Sibiu 2013, “Nicolae Balcescu” Land
Forces Academy Publishing House, pp. 97-102.
28. Edwards, S. (1998), Openness, productivity and growth: what do we really know?
Economic Journal 108, 383–398, Available at: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5978.pdf
29. Esfahani, H.S. (1991), Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Semi-Industrialised
Countries, Journal of Development Economics 35, pp. 93-116.
30. Feder G (1982), On exports and economic growth, Journal of Development
Economics, 12: pp. 59-73.
31. Findlay, R. (1984), Growth and Development Trade Models, In: Jones, R.W. and P.B.
Kenen, eds., Handbook of International Economics, Amsterdam, North-Holland.
32. Frankel, J., and Romer, D. (1999), Does Trade Cause Growth ?, American Economic
Review, 89(3), pp. 379-399.
33. Granger, C.W.J. (1969), Investigating causal relations by econometric models and
cross spectral methods, Econometrica, 37, pp. 424-38.
34. Granger, C.W.J. (1988), Some recent developments in the concept of causality,
Journal of Econometrics, 39, pp.199-211.
35. Grossman, G.M. and Helpman, E. (1991), Innovation and Growth in the Global
Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
36. Gurgul, Henryk and Lach, Łukasz (2010), International trade and economic growth in
the Polish economy, Published in: Operations Research and Decisions, Vol. 20, (2010):
pp. 5-29, Available at: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52286
37. Hannan, E. J. and Quinn, B. G. (1979), The determination of the order of an
autoregression, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B41: pp. 190-195.
38. Henriques, I., and Sadorsky, P. (1996), Export-led growth or growth-driven exports?
The Canadian case, Canadian Journal of Economics, pp. 540-555.
39. Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. (1985), Market Structure and Foreign Trade,
Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
40. Herzer, Dierk and Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas (2005), Are exports and imports of
Chile cointegrated?, Discussion papers // Ibero America Institute for Economic Research,
No. 111, Available at: http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/27400/1/493051902.PDF
41. Hsiao, M.C.W. (1987), Tests of causality and exogeniety between exports and
economic growth: the case of the Asian NIC’s, Journal of Economic Development 12(2),
pp. 143–159.
42. Humpage, O.F. (2000), Do imports hinder or help economic growth?, Federal Reserve
Bank of Cleveland, March 15.
43. Husted, S. (1992), The emerging U.S. current account deficit in the 1980s: A
cointegration analysis, The review of Economics and Statistics, 74(1), pp. 159-166.
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International Comparison, Metroeconomica, 55:1, pp. 49-64.
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Published
2023-02-02
How to Cite
Dumitriu, R., & Stefanescu, R. (2023). INVESTIGATION ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ROMANIAN FOREIGN TRADE AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION. Vanguard Scientific Instruments in Management, 9(9). Retrieved from https://vsim-journal.info/index.php?journal=vsim&page=article&op=view&path[]=368
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