START-UP COMPANIES PREDICTIVE MODELS ANALYSIS
Abstract
A quantitative research is performed to derive a model for predicting the
success of Bulgarian start-up companies. The preceding research stages included an
overview and analysis of older success prediction models, a new abstract success
prediction model, a venture creation process model and a qualitative research. The
abstract success prediction model is extended with measurable variables which are
included in a survey. The survey is currently in progress with 105 responses by owners
and managers of Bulgarian companies. The current dataset was analyzed using IBM
SPSS Modeler which automatically tests many models and suggests the best performing
ones. The best derived model is a decision tree model that predicts the success of the
start-up companies from the dataset with 91,86% probability using 11 variables.
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